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Forecasts

IEE Forecast (15). American economy will absorb the world capitals like a powerful pump in 2005


Informational results of the previous week: IEE forecasts come true, which proves reliability of the applied forecasting models and techniques. Readers may learn more about them, if they wish to.
Nevertheless, even within the previous forecasts, events are logical and natural. It causes aesthetic satisfaction according to professor A.P.Stahova, - and the economy submits to laws of universal numbers.

Even today we may predict the result of a FRS experiment on driving of the American economy from " a soft patch " at the beginning of 2000. In 2005 American economy as a powerful "pump" will absorb the world capitals. It will do that not by force, but with a powerful attractor  - the mechanism of capitals attraction. Investors of world macroeconomic regions will carry their capitals to the USA not under pressing, but quite voluntary. The USA became the most attractive region for investments (if only China and India do not interfere).

Alan Greenspan, the head of US Federal Reserve System in 2003, introduced the term "a soft patch" as a delay of economic growth.

The US economy in its hard 2000 did not experience a crisis. Its economic growth for the previous five years did not fall below 0 % a year. Still it was lower than two percent. During this period a grandiose experiment with downturn of a discount rate began. It served as a promoting monetary policy. FRS has lowered a discount rate to 1 %. Then it started to raise it smoothly. Goods flew from the USA to foreign markets, the dollar exchange rate reduced. Today foreign capitals flow to the USA too. So Alan Greenspan overcame "a soft patch".

The US balance of payments shows the amount of the streams. The sum for purchases and sales of long-term securities in February, 2005 were equal to annual gross national product of France. In February foreigners have got the US long-term securities for $1,3763 bln., and they  have sold for $1,2780 bln. The pure capitals have made $98,3 billion (About $92 billion in January). Despite of huge deficiency of trading balance ($61,0 billion), it has overcome it.

The data was published by the US exchequer on the last Friday on April 15. For 12 months ended on February, the volume of net - purchase of long-term securities by foreign investors has made $830,6 billion, against $759,3 billion for 12 months ended in February, 2004. The data impresses, for the USA have received the sum comparable to thirteen annual gross national products of Ukraine or, otherwise, to one annual gross national product of the Central European country. This is a good example of money search.

Economics has never experienced the analogy. It was the result of Greenspan's understanding of market processes harmonious game at the monetary market. It cannot be advertised, as any bank operations are not advertised, but in textbooks this case deserves the description in gold letters. There arises the following conclusion: not the government, but the central bank should work for the development of economy during the crisis periods.

However according to IMF forecasts, the economic growth will make only 4,3 % this year, in comparison with last year's 5,2 %. These data speak also about a negative vector. If the USA have received so powerful streams of capitals, some world regions must experience a recession. It can be in case that the streams supported the traditional US capital (we have already predicted, that it is traditional).

As a confirmation, the previous week IVF has changed its forecast for growth of gross national product in European zone from 2,2 % for 1,6 %. It has proved the IEE forecast that Germany would not fulfill the employment program this year. The IMF forecast on growth of gross national product in Japan has been lowered from 2,3 % to 0,8 % in 2005. And it makes obvious risks for economy. IVF is especially concerned with the fact, that the world growth is non-uniform. The USA and China outstrip Europe and Japan.

One more confirmation for IEE forecasts is that high prices for oil threaten the whole world. IVF also asserts this in the World Economic Outlook review. It recognizes, that it did not expect big demand for oil from India and China. It hopes, that volumes of an oil recovery will be increased.
However IVF economists believe, that sharp fluctuations of the prices for oil, can be negative for intermediate term prospects.

Institute of evolutionary economy wrote, that the prices for oil will be like the valve of return pressure for economic growth. 

As a confirmation for this, MEA in its report almost repeated the IEE forecast, - " Interest rates move on an ascending trajectory in the countries with good economic growth (especially in the USA) and, together with the high prices for oil, operate as a brake for economy ". And we (IEE) repeat, if not to start an innovative project of a world scale, the prices for traditional resources (including oil) will bring serious dangers to all countries of the world, and Ukraine among them.
At the same time MEA has lowered the forecast for growth of world demand for oil in 2005 for 50 thousand barrels a day up to 1,77 million barrels a day. In previous, March report МEА has raised the forecast on demand for oil in 2005 for 290 thousand barrels a day up to 1,81 million barrels a day. According to April forecast МEА, world demand for oil will make 84,27 million barrels a day in 2005. Though the forecast on demand for oil has remained very high, МEА has specified in the report, that " from the point of view of demand, risks are directed downwards, for the first time in two years ". In January - February demand for oil in China has grown by 5,4 % in comparison with the same period of 2004. IEE had predicted, that "the economy will rush a fever for some more time... "

Thus, the result can look as following: in the nearest future economic processes will be influenced by different vectors.

(с) IEE

(с) I.P. Makarenko 

Posted on the website: 2005-04-27

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