IEE forecast and comment (II). If the discount rate will raise, dollar will strengthen

Though practically nobody doubts a possible FRS decision to raise a discount rate by 0,25 %, the world of analysts of the currency market has stopped waiting. The pressure transferred also to dollar, and it has strengthened maximally. 0,25 % is already included Into the market prices, and nothing will change (if only reality will support the expectations). Now everyone is waiting only for the report, and even only for two phrases on "measured rates" (increase of a discount rate) and on "stimulus" in the character of monetary policy.

Perhaps, the greatest expectations concern the first phrase. For the market will get a signal about change of increase in a discount rate, or possible changes in inflationary expectations. News agencies and analytical agencies even make questionnaires for leading analysts to learn when A.Greenspen will clean this phrase out of the report. There is no unanimity whether it will happen by summer or now. We assume, that the committee for the open markets, too, gives no unanimity and confidence, for recent increase of the prices for oil has destroyed everything. That is why despite of quite a transparent situation, we all are waiting.

Let's return to our expectations. Some economic processes are not connected with inflation, but can press economic dynamics, and in our opinion they have become more active now. We mean great overflow of traditional capitals to the US economy. They threaten with a wave of costs inflation, and with delays of the world economic development in future. (Now a new world innovative project would be proper for mitigation of possible negative consequences of events).

We assume, that the time to change rates of decrease in the monetary offer has already come. For neutralization of risks it would be good to increase a discount rate more than by 0,25 %. However such decision is almost impossible, for on the other hand there has come time of smooth deducing of a trajectory of a discount rate to a stable condition. There is a suspicion as for possible mistake of FRS in a choice of tactics of return of a discount rate in an initial, and stable condition. An underestimated growth of a discount rate could have been chosen a year ago.

The future will show whether our fears are justified or not. The indicator of expectation is the price for traditional energy carriers. Will it "knock down" or not the economic growth in the USA? Will it add new complications? This involves Ukraine, as well as other countries. We do not know, whether it will have its own innovative projects, but the inflation of costs and prices for energy carriers can bring much more problems to it, than to the economy of the USA.

I. Makarenko

IEE

Posted on the website: 2005-03-23