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Обращаем внимание на инновацию, созданную на данном сайте. Внизу главной страницы расположены графики,  которые в on line демонстрируют изменения цен на мировых рынках золота  и нефти, а также экономический календарь публикации в Интернете важных мировых экономических индексов 

 
Forecasts

The forecast of the IEE #8 (47).


The given forecast is the continuation of the forecast of Institute of the evolutionary economy made on December, 13th, 2005  (the Forecast of the IEE (38)). It is based on a method new to us, so-called, the Law of time of V.Hlebnikov. We shall repeat, very much in this Law is unexpected and unusual. It would be possible not to pay attention to it, but it - "works". Especially it concerns to accuracy of predicted events even if they should occur in decades. It is confirmed, and to such confident of this method we concern our prognosticator (Kuzmenko V.P.), that if precisely to define a key event it will be strengthened by something through 2 in an even degree of days and especially - in 28 days.

 Judge for yourself, how many casual and not interrelated events should occur for the specified period that to try "to drive" them into a rigid enough interval of predicted time? But on December, 13th, 2005 we have decided to risk and go on the certain risk, having created the experimental forecast and, thus, to check up operation of the law, in a direct fishbowl of our constant readers.

As the key event used for checking of the Law of time of Hlebnikov, we have taken date of resignation by Victor Jushchenko Julia Timoshenko's government. Dramatic enough on heat were events; usually such were undertaken to calculation by the prognosticators, and Hlebnikov himself. We shall remind, then, on December, 13th, 2005 our forecast came to an end with following words:

« …, Victor Jushchenko has sent in resignation Julia Timoshenko's government in September, 2005, and it means, that in April-May, 2006 - in 2 8 days, i.e. soon after parliamentary elections, this process will be strengthened by something. And in 2012, that is through 3 6 + 3 6 days from this event or in 2017, that is through 3 7 + 3 7 days from initial event with characters of this political action can occur any not ordinary events. We now have an interesting opportunity to check up « the Organic law of time "of Hlebnikov".

 And here the first date designated in the forecast comes nearer. Considering huge heat and a pressure in events again, connected with the main persons of predicted events, it was already possible to speak, that the forecast has come to pass, and that the Law of time opened by Hlebnikov works. But we have decided to strengthen an accent on this forecast, having returned to a theme, in an even greater degree having concentrated attention on dates. It can here again will work, i.e. down to trifles? 

So, before separating from the day of resignation of Julia Timoshenko's government - on September, 7th, 2005 the specified interval in 2 8 days, remains exactly one month. This period comes to an end on May, 21st, 2006 and before this date the super intense situation in attitudes Timoshenko-Yushchenko, according to Hlebnikov, should be resolved.

 Within the next few days and weeks with characters of this political action can occur any not ordinary events. We now have an interesting opportunity once again to check up « the Organic law of time "of Hlebnikov".

I.Makarenko   V.Kuzmenko

Institute of evolutionary economy

 

Posted on the website: 2006-04-26

Comments on this article:

Дата: 2014-04-10     Коментарий добавил(а): Vladislav

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2008-10-09:
Прогноз ИЭЭ #6 (69). Мировая экономика получит импульс экономической активности в начале 2009
 среду 08.10.08 семь центробанков мира одновременно понизили учетные ставки на 0,5%
2007-02-06:
The forecast of the IEE #3 (59). Economic dynamics in Ukraine for 2007
In 2007 on the forecast for Ukraine following risks will be imposed
2007-01-18:
The forecast of the IEE #2 (58). Currency tendencies for 2007

Summing up 2006 it is already possible to speak, that for US dollar it was one of the best periods. We shall recollect even the end 2004 beginning of 2005 when its rate has sharply gone downwards in relation to practically all leading world currencies

2006-04-26:
The forecast of the IEE #8 (47).

In political relations between Yushchenko and Timoshenko eccentric events must happen to May 2006 (the Forecast on Hlebnikov Part 3)

2006-04-08:
Forecast IEE #7 (46). Europe: simultaneous growth of risks and sociopolitical pressure
The increase in the discount rate by the European central bank (ЕCB) in 2006 will cause a growth in the risks in the economies of incorporated Europe
2006-04-07:
The forecast of IEE #6 (45). Exchange risks of the world in 2006
afraid, that in the second half of 2006 the dollar exchange rate in the world exchange markets can fall to 30 % - 45 % in relation to ...
2005-05-10:
IEE Forecast [16]. Ukraine will not avoid crisis, if not to take precautions and not to start innovative processes
After year 2006, the economy of Ukraine will step in a phase of its first serious economic crisis
2005-04-27:
IEE Forecast (15). American economy will absorb the world capitals like a powerful pump in 2005
Even today we may predict the result of a FRS experiment on driving of the American economy from " a soft patch " at the beginning of 2000
2005-04-25:
IEE Forecast. If there are no innovative priorities, the habitation market will become a risky point of the fund for business and investors.

The real estate sector is a small drop, and but for economy it reflects the bitter history of Ukraine, and (without exaggeration) all the CIS history.

2005-04-05:
IEE Forecast (13). Investments outside of systemic innovations go "nowhere": on the lot of oil and dollar
World prices for oil and dollar exchange rate will be "the valve of constant pressure " for economic growth
2005-03-23:
IEE forecast and comment (II). If the discount rate will raise, dollar will strengthen
Though practically nobody doubts a possible FRS decision to raise a discount rate by 0,25 %, the world of analysts of the currency market has stopped waiting
2005-03-22:
IEE forecast and comments. On a sudden problem of " canceling of the obligatory sale of 50 % currency proceeds"
Political risks in management of economy do not weaken in Ukraine. That can provoke an economic crisis even in a short-term prospect (after 2006)
2005-03-18:
IEE Forecast. Dollar, oil, steel, and the global innovational system will influence the world dynamics
Factors, which will influence economic dynamics in the nearest future
2005-03-01:
IEE Forecast. Ukrainian economy is most likely to remain excessively dependant on tools of economic policy in 2005
Most likely, innovative processes, capable to bring Ukraine forward at any commodity or technological sphere will not start in
2005-02-25:
IEE Forecast. The World Economics Will Run a Fever For Some More Time
According to leading economist's opinion, continuous decrease of long-term rates in the world's most developed countries is one of the greatest puzzles in the financial world today. The problem is important for the USA, and other national economics
2005-02-23:
IEE Forecast. The World Economics Will Run a Fever For Some More Time
The world economics will run a fever for some period (5-10 years). It will suffer decreased production effectiveness, raised consumption of oil in China, price fluctuations for fuel. After that, we will experience an unprecedented and grand innovational project. The project will change the quality of all the world economics, absorb all the free capital, and increase long-term yield.
2005-02-15:
IEE Forecast: Growth of a dollar exchange rate can cause growth of the external economic risks for Ukraine
As to the internal factors, which compensate specified risks, it is necessary to carry significant potential of economic growth to them due to activization of internal consumption. It is a question of activization of the factors removing restrictions on ways of incomes growth of people, of fine and average business.
2005-02-07:
IEE Forecast. In economic there can be a slow economic growth with the crisis periods
The deficiency growth of the account of current operations in the USA is connected first of all with smooth and deep downturn of a discount rate.
2005-02-01:
IEE Forecast: on a dollar exchange rate, OPEC conference, and session of FRS board, Bush's speech and meeting of G7.
Events of this week will leave the trace in 2005 World discussions
2005-01-19:
IEE Forecast
The committee for Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the USA (FOMC) will raise a discount rate for 0,25 % having brought it up to the value of 2,50 % at the next session, which will take place on February 1-2, 2005.
2004-12-30:
IEE. In the coming year the price for gold will continue to grow
Gold already would seem ceased to carry out function of money, again in the price because of the monetary markets dynamics.