Innovation - is a historically irrevocable change in the method of production of things.
J. Schumpeter

M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky

J.A. Schumpeter

N.D. Kondratiev

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Обращаем внимание на инновацию, созданную на данном сайте. Внизу главной страницы расположены графики,  которые в on line демонстрируют изменения цен на мировых рынках золота  и нефти, а также экономический календарь публикации в Интернете важных мировых экономических индексов 


IEE Forecast (13). Investments outside of systemic innovations go "nowhere": on the lot of oil and dollar

We consider, that the factors, which determine the interaction of traditional and innovative economy and the global systemic innovative processes, will limit the economic growth in the medium-term period.

The assumption for the forecast is, that the economy has entered the next phase of global processes. Here our perception of globalization differs from traditional. For we remember the definition by Manuel Kastels "Global economy is something different - it is capable to work as a uniform system in real time regime all over the planet ".

Thus, in our opinion, globalization is a process of organizing the economy into a complete system. US economy, as well as a number of other advanced economies, is one of large national economic systems of the world. So, globalization is an objective process. It is impossible to resist it and not to interrupt with high rates of global economic growth.

We believe, that the first stage of globalization was the period of the Gold Standard. It has led to the uniform tools and balance of payment in the world. The following stage brought the uniform world standards of technological development. It also brought standards of communicational systems. The present stage of globalization is connected with the formation of uniform global innovative process.

If the given hypothesis is true, the period of uncertainty and balancing on the verge of global crisis and sharp rises of separate economies will proceed not for five years and even not for a decade. Its may be at 2030-2050.

During this time the economic opportunities of innovative growth of separate economies will exhaust their potential. The new potential will build with the global resources of a new quality. If global tools of economic policy are absent, the process can go under aegis of one leading country. So the world hegemony of new type may come. Now it is difficult to tell which of the countries or global macroregions can become such a leader. But the determining factors are clear. They are: accumulation of the world intellectual and financial potentials; access and technologies of the information processing. But the most important are the management tools for effective influence on the global economy, and especially, in its crisis periods.

Oil will stimulate the new innovative process. Growth of its price will brake and stabilize the growth of traditional economy. This will force to search for new innovative trends, and innovation will be pushed by depression. If our assumptions are true, new innovative process will demand all world financial resources. Actually, it will provoke a new stage of global processes. The economic rates will increase. Traditional economic sectors have become habitual and "dear". Now they will be destroyed. To a degree, they will promote the braking of changes.

For now it has not taken place, the traditional economy will render constraining and stabilizing effect on growth of the world economy. It will happen through prices rise for traditional resources mainly.

The world prices for oil and dollar exchange rate will be "the valve of constant pressure " for economic growth. Meanwhile, growth of the world prices for oil starts to alarm economists and politicians. Attention to this problem and desire "to cool" the oil market has generated possible scripts of such "cooling". But they are of not strategic and innovative character. They are based rather on technical stimulation of the dollar exchange growth.

The measures for increase of a spread between interest rates in the USA and Europe are promoted. However such measures can strengthen risks to distribute for the benefit of traditional economy and to ignore the innovative developing markets.

These trends are based on traditional understanding of the economy as of an open system. However the new problem influences the world more and more.  The economy is a closed system. And no other economic system exists in our world yet. Accordingly, the situation requires a new reflection. And Meadows and Forrester already described the situation itself in their report to the Roma Club.


I. Makarenko

Posted on the website: 2005-04-05

Comments on this article:

Прогноз ИЭЭ #6 (69). Мировая экономика получит импульс экономической активности в начале 2009
 среду 08.10.08 семь центробанков мира одновременно понизили учетные ставки на 0,5%
The forecast of the IEE #3 (59). Economic dynamics in Ukraine for 2007
In 2007 on the forecast for Ukraine following risks will be imposed
The forecast of the IEE #2 (58). Currency tendencies for 2007

Summing up 2006 it is already possible to speak, that for US dollar it was one of the best periods. We shall recollect even the end 2004 beginning of 2005 when its rate has sharply gone downwards in relation to practically all leading world currencies

The forecast of the IEE #8 (47).

In political relations between Yushchenko and Timoshenko eccentric events must happen to May 2006 (the Forecast on Hlebnikov Part 3)

Forecast IEE #7 (46). Europe: simultaneous growth of risks and sociopolitical pressure
The increase in the discount rate by the European central bank (ЕCB) in 2006 will cause a growth in the risks in the economies of incorporated Europe
The forecast of IEE #6 (45). Exchange risks of the world in 2006
afraid, that in the second half of 2006 the dollar exchange rate in the world exchange markets can fall to 30 % - 45 % in relation to ...
IEE Forecast [16]. Ukraine will not avoid crisis, if not to take precautions and not to start innovative processes
After year 2006, the economy of Ukraine will step in a phase of its first serious economic crisis
IEE Forecast (15). American economy will absorb the world capitals like a powerful pump in 2005
Even today we may predict the result of a FRS experiment on driving of the American economy from " a soft patch " at the beginning of 2000
IEE Forecast. If there are no innovative priorities, the habitation market will become a risky point of the fund for business and investors.

The real estate sector is a small drop, and but for economy it reflects the bitter history of Ukraine, and (without exaggeration) all the CIS history.

IEE Forecast (13). Investments outside of systemic innovations go "nowhere": on the lot of oil and dollar
World prices for oil and dollar exchange rate will be "the valve of constant pressure " for economic growth
IEE forecast and comment (II). If the discount rate will raise, dollar will strengthen
Though practically nobody doubts a possible FRS decision to raise a discount rate by 0,25 %, the world of analysts of the currency market has stopped waiting
IEE forecast and comments. On a sudden problem of " canceling of the obligatory sale of 50 % currency proceeds"
Political risks in management of economy do not weaken in Ukraine. That can provoke an economic crisis even in a short-term prospect (after 2006)
IEE Forecast. Dollar, oil, steel, and the global innovational system will influence the world dynamics
Factors, which will influence economic dynamics in the nearest future
IEE Forecast. Ukrainian economy is most likely to remain excessively dependant on tools of economic policy in 2005
Most likely, innovative processes, capable to bring Ukraine forward at any commodity or technological sphere will not start in
IEE Forecast. The World Economics Will Run a Fever For Some More Time
According to leading economist's opinion, continuous decrease of long-term rates in the world's most developed countries is one of the greatest puzzles in the financial world today. The problem is important for the USA, and other national economics
IEE Forecast. The World Economics Will Run a Fever For Some More Time
The world economics will run a fever for some period (5-10 years). It will suffer decreased production effectiveness, raised consumption of oil in China, price fluctuations for fuel. After that, we will experience an unprecedented and grand innovational project. The project will change the quality of all the world economics, absorb all the free capital, and increase long-term yield.
IEE Forecast: Growth of a dollar exchange rate can cause growth of the external economic risks for Ukraine
As to the internal factors, which compensate specified risks, it is necessary to carry significant potential of economic growth to them due to activization of internal consumption. It is a question of activization of the factors removing restrictions on ways of incomes growth of people, of fine and average business.
IEE Forecast. In economic there can be a slow economic growth with the crisis periods
The deficiency growth of the account of current operations in the USA is connected first of all with smooth and deep downturn of a discount rate.
IEE Forecast: on a dollar exchange rate, OPEC conference, and session of FRS board, Bush's speech and meeting of G7.
Events of this week will leave the trace in 2005 World discussions
IEE Forecast
The committee for Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the USA (FOMC) will raise a discount rate for 0,25 % having brought it up to the value of 2,50 % at the next session, which will take place on February 1-2, 2005.
IEE. In the coming year the price for gold will continue to grow
Gold already would seem ceased to carry out function of money, again in the price because of the monetary markets dynamics.