Азия. Резервный банк Новой Зеландии понизил ставку на 50 б.п. до 2,50% в марте 2011

 GrigoryZaid(Sapiens)

Центробанк понизил стравку до 2.5% и сопроводил данное решение комментариями, которые открывают дорогу, возможно еще большему ослаблению денежно-кредитной политики в будущем.ЦБ отметил, что слабость экономики по причине природных катаклизмов возможно должна требовать от регулятора больших мер по стимулированию.

March 10 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing slower growth from the deadliest earthquake in 80 years and sending the local currency to a five-month low. “We have acted preemptively in reducing the cash rate to lessen the economic impact of the earthquake and guard against the risk of this impact becoming especially severe,” Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement released in Wellington today.

“We expect that the current monetary policy accommodation will need to be removed once the rebuilding phase materializes. This will take some time.” New Zealand’s dollar, which reached an 11-week low after Prime Minister John Key said last week he expected a rate cut, dropped even further against the U.S. currency after today’s decision. Bollard said the economy may contract in the first quarter as the magnitude 6.3 earthquake that struck Christchurch city on Feb. 22 curbs consumer confidence and spending.

Bollard’s move will “provide a greater boost to business and consumer confidence, making it more likely that the national economy remains on course for a recovery later this year,” Darren Gibbs, chief economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland, said in a research note before the statement. Six of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected the half percentage-point cut, while four forecast a quarter- point drop and five predicted no change.

Kiwi Weakens New Zealand’s currency weakened to 73.69 U.S. cents at 9:21 a.m. in Wellington from 73.88 cents immediately before the release. The so-called kiwi is the worst-performing G-10 currency this year, falling 5.3 percent before today. Key sent the local dollar lower last week after saying he’d welcome a rate cut. “That would probably be my expectation, that the Reserve Bank would cut, but it’s for them to determine that,” Key, a former head of foreign exchange at Merrill Lynch & Co., said in a March 2 interview. Last month’s temblor struck New Zealand’s second-biggest city at lunch time, wrecking buildings and forcing an evacuation of the central business district.

Output from the South Island city, which makes up 15 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, has slowed as workers left the city and offices were abandoned. More than 160 people died, making the quake the deadliest since 256 died after a temblor struck the North Island city of Napier in 1931. ‘Negatively Impacted’ “It is clear that economic activity, most certainly in Christchurch but also nationwide, will be negatively impacted,” Bollard said.

“Lowering the cash rate should be regarded as an insurance measure, designed to help offset the negative economic effects of the earthquake.” The economy showed signs of slowing before the February quake, with risks that the nation fell into a recession in the second half of 2010. GDP contracted in the third quarter, and Finance Minister Bill English said last month it was possible it shrank in the three months ended Dec. 31.

“Even before the earthquake, GDP growth was much weaker than expected,” Bollard said today, citing weak retail sales, declining housing investment and an early summer drought. GDP increased by 0.5 percent in 2010 and growth “is projected to be quite weak through the first half of the year,” he said. The central bank didn’t publish quarterly forecasts. GDP “held steady” in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the quake likely reduced growth by 0.6 percentage point in the three months ending March, making it “quite possible” the economy shrank, the central bank said in its quarterly policy statement, also published today.

Growth Outlook The economy will grow an annual average of 0.9 percent in the year ending March 31, less than the 1.7 percent pace forecast in December, the central bank said. By March 2012, growth will have improved to 2.7 percent, although that is slower than the 3.4 percent forecast in December. Rebuilding damaged buildings and infrastructure in Christchurch will boost growth in 2012 and 2013, Bollard said.

The cost of reconstruction will be NZ$15 billion ($11 billion), he said. Buoying the economy, prices for the nation’s main commodity exports including milk and meat, have surged to a record amid sustained demand from China and other Asian nations. “The export sector has benefited from very high commodity prices however farmers have focused on repaying debt rather than increasing spending,” Bollard said.

New Zealand sales of milk products to China rose fivefold in 2010 from 2009, according to government data supplied by Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. Fonterra, which processes 95 percent of the country’s milk and earns a fifth of its exports, last month raised its forecast payout to dairy farmers, citing rising international prices. Bollard today forecast consumer prices will rise 2.1 percent in the year ending March 2012, matching the projection published in December. A year later, inflation will accelerate to 2.4 percent, he said. Prices rose 4 percent last year, with about half the gain attributed to a one-time increase in the nation’s sales tax.

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Опубликовано на сайте: 2011-03-14